Now that Verizon Wireless has laid out its long-term evolution plans, carriers from across the land are probably wondering what this whole 4G concept means. They’ll be arriving at CTIA Wireless next month with a laundry list of questions about LTE and how it fits into or affects their future business plans.
Probably the biggest question carriers will have is “What’s in LTE for me?” Now that Verizon is deploying LTE, does it mean they have to as well? If so, do they have to immediately or can they hold out for a few more years like AT&T and T-Mobile? What kind of investment will be involved and what kind of returns can they expect to receive on that investment? If they’re roaming partners with Verizon for CDMA, can they also expect to be roaming LTE roaming partners? Or on the flip-side, will Verizon use LTE to muscle in on their turf?
What if a carrier doesn’t have 700 MHz spectrum? Are there other bands an operator can use for LTE, and if so, will there be the economies of scale to justify using those bands? And what if LTE simply isn’t an option? Is WiMAX still an option? Are there partnerships available with other 4G operators such Clearwire or upgrades to current 3G networks that will keep a non-4G operator competitive? In the grand scheme of things, is 4G going to be all that and a bag of chips, anyway, or is this just another wireless hype cycle?
I don’t have the answer to any of those questions, and it’s doubtful that the exhibitors, speakers and presenters at CTIA Wireless will have all of the answers either. But this year I believe we’re going to see a major LTE dialogue started. 4G is moving out of the realm of the conceptual into the real world, and consequently the industry is starting to talk about LTE in a very real way. Sure there will still be discussions of massive-bandwidth mobile applications and broadband to every gadget, but a lot of operators will now start asking the tough questions about costs, timing and operational efficiency. So vendors, be on your toes. You can show all of the high-definition video streaming and multiplayer real-time gaming demos you like, but I suspect you’re going to get a lot more nitty-gritty questions this year. Namely “How soon? and “How cheap?”
